UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Topple Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed papers reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.