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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth UK leader to occupy the role in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look grim.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”