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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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