From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”